Most investors will enter this week confused after battling through another topsy-turvy trading week.
Bitcoin nosedived at its worst by 20% over the weekend (more on that below). Last week, the S&P 500 saw five straight losses of at least 1% at one point each day, according to Bloomberg data. Small-cap stocks as measured by the Russell 2000 are officially in a correction.
Does one brave these rockier waters and buy the dip? After all, the strategy has worked wonders in the past five years as markets have been awash in liquidity. What I say is to sit tight. Honestly, you shouldn't be confused at all given the economic implications of the new Omicron variant (and potentially others) and the Federal Reserve soon pulling back the liquidity punch bowl.
I think the team at Goldman Sachs led by Jan Hatzius nicely summed up this weekend why you should be hesitant to buy dips in the market in the near-term. In other words, the market has been right to hate the Omicron variant:
"First, Omicron could slow economic reopening, but we expect only a modest drag on service spending because domestic virus-control policy and economic activity have become significantly less sensitive to virus spread.
Second, Omicron could exacerbate goods supply shortages if virus spread in other countries necessitates tight restrictions. This was a major problem during the Delta wave, but increases in vaccination rates in foreign trade partners since then should limit the scope for severe supply disruptions.
Third, Omicron could delay the timeline for some people feeling comfortable returning to work and cause worker shortages to linger somewhat longer."
The read here: the market probably hasn't priced in anything Hatzius discusses above from an economic standpoint. It's currently in the process of figuring things out. Hatzius slashed his first quarter 2022 GDP estimate to 3% from 4.5% primarily due to the spreading Omicron variant.
Then the other component at play is in fact the new Jerome Powell-led Fed in 2022, one that is more focused on controlling inflation than providing support to asset markets. To that end, Bank of America's Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett sets the stage very well for 2022 in this new Fed era:
"2021-22 investment backdrop we say similar to early stagflation of late-60s, early70s ... period of inflation & interest rates breaking higher from secular low/stable trading ranges on back of high budget deficits, Vietnam, “Great Society” policies, civil unrest, political and acquiescent Fed; late-60s/70s “stagflation” winners were real assets, real estate, commodities, volatility, cash, emerging markets, all of which held their own versus inflation; losers were bonds, credit, equities, tech, all of which ultimately struggled; we think we’re in the ’69-’71 period."
Harnett is bearish on 2022, and expects a "rates shock" and tightening financial conditions.
Happy trading! And remember, what goes up must eventually come down.
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