Stock-market benchmarks booked modest gains Monday, but enough to push the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 further into record territory.
On Friday, stocks ended a volatile week on a positive note, with the Dow DJIA, +0.53% and S&P 500 SPX, +0.65% closing at records, while the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +1.05% logged a weekly gain of 3.1% after slipping into correction territory, a fall of 10% from a recent peak, earlier in the week.
The small-cap Russell 2000 RUT, +0.31% also scored a record close on Friday.
Stocks closed modestly higher Monday, after recording solid gains last week as President Joe Biden signed a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package into law and investors shook off a sixth straight week of rising Treasury yields.
“With the Fed still pumping over $5 billion daily into markets, and Congress passing multitrillion-dollar bills with only the thought of raising offsetting revenue, there is plenty of fuel for higher prices,” said James Meyer, chief investment officer for Tower Bridge Advisors.
Although, with investors keenly focused on Wednesday’s scheduled policy briefing, following the U.S. central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day gathering, it could be a few lackluster days of trading for U.S. equities ahead of the update.
“The big event this week is the FOMC meeting,” Jimmy Chang, chief investment officer at Rockefeller Global Family Office, told MarketWatch. “I think the focus will be on whether Fed officials update their assessment of the economy, given that the $1.9 trillion stimulus spending has now passed.”
“Many economists and strategists are now raising their growth estimates for the year,” Chang said, adding that markets will be looking for clues to the Fed’s thinking on inflation expectations, as well as benchmark rates, particularly with 10-year Treasury yields hovering around 1.609%.
Those rising yields have been seen as the main fuel behind a rotation away from previously highflying, large-cap growth stocks toward more cyclically sensitive, value-oriented stocks. In theory, higher bond yields make it tougher to justify stretched valuations for the most expensive stocks, while expectations for a broader economic reopening make cyclical stocks more attractive.
Early last week, the Nasdaq slipped into correction territory, defined as a pullback of 10% from a recent peak, but subsequently was 4.5% off its closing record on Feb. 12. Monday saw a continuation of that rise in highflying shares, with the tech sector mostly outperforming the rest of the market.
Treasury yields were lower Monday, with the rate on the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.610% down 2.5 basis points, but still near its highest levels in around a year. Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.
No monetary-policy changes are expected Wednesday, but Powell likely will once again face questions about rising bond yields, boosted by expectations for a pickup in inflation.
Powell “is likely to emphasize that significant uncertainties remain and that large gaps persist between the current and pre-COVID economies, particularly with respect to the labor market,” said Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, in a note.
“As such, Powell is likely to reiterate that any discussion of tapering is ‘premature’ and that it will likely be ‘some time’ before the committee can assess when ‘substantial further progress’ will be achieved, he wrote.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to a reading of 17.4 in March from 12.1 in the prior month, the New York Fed said Monday. This is the highest level of the index since last July and the ninth consecutive reading above zero, which indicates an expansion of activity.
© 2021 LeackStat.com
2025 © Leackstat. All rights reserved