Starbucks’ stock (NASDAQ: SBUX) was nearly flat over the last 5 trading days, as the stock has stabilized post its Q1 FY 2021 (ended December 2020) earnings last month. In comparison, the broader S&P 500 rose by 0.7% over the last five trading days. For Q1 FY 2021 (ended December 2020) Starbucks reported revenues at $6.7 billion, down 5% y-o-y and earnings at $0.53 per share compared to $0.74 in the same period of the previous year. The decrease in revenue was due to a fall in comparable sales as Covid-19 effects still lingered on. Now, is Starbucks’ stock poised to grow? We believe that there is a 61% chance of a rise in Starbucks’ stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last five years. See our analysis on Starbucks’ Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.

Five Days: SBUX -0.1%, vs. S&P500 0.7%; Underperformed market

(42% likelihood event)

• Starbucks stock declined 0.1% over a five day trading period ending 2/16/2021, compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.7%
• A change of -0.1% or more over five trading days is a 42% likelihood event, which has occurred 532 times out of 1256 in the last five years

 Ten Days: SBUX 7.7%, vs. S&P500 4.5%; Outperformed market

(30% likelihood event)

• Starbucks stock rose 7.7% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.5%
• A change of 7.7% or more over ten trading days is a 30% likelihood event, which has occurred 375 times out of 1240 in the last five years

Twenty One Days: SBUX 4.3%, vs. S&P500 3.9%; Outperformed market

(21% likelihood event)

• Starbucks stock rose 4.3% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.9%
• A change of 4.3% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 21% likelihood event, which has occurred 260 times out of 1198 in the last five years

While Starbucks’ stock may have moved, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how the stock valuation for Starbucks vs. Home Depot shows a disconnect with their relative operational growth. You can find many such discontinuous pairs here.

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